Monte Carlo
SYNTHETIC / DEMO Simulates your assumptions — more trials do not make the model more accurate
Setup
SYNTHETIC: Hypothetical central bank cuts policy rate at next meeting
YES · N=1,000 · c=0.4300 · p(YES)=58.0% · k=40 (sd 0.077)
Trials
Run the simulation to see probability uncertainty and binary settlement outcomes.
Sensitivity · EV per contract across p and all-in price
Fractional Kelly · reference only
Optional. A mechanical sizing formula shown for reference — not a recommendation.