Scenario Lab

SYNTHETIC / DEMO Illustrative heuristic — not a trained or calibrated forecast

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Event

Title

Market & capital

Position side

YES ask

NO ask

Fees / contract

Slippage / contract

Paper capital

Max allocation

Contracts (N)

Max affordable: 2,325

YES bid (optional)

NO bid (optional)

Overround (YES ask + NO ask − 1): +0.030

Probability model

logit(base) + Σ evidence + Σ conditions

Base probability

Concentration (k)

Override final P(YES)

Final P(YES)

58.0%

model

Log-odds decomposition

Evidence (3)

contribution = weight × reliability × (rumor ½) × 0.5^(age/half-life). Excluded if available-at is after as-of. Same group → net capped at strongest member.

Synthetic inflation print below consensusinflationconfirmeddisabled

Title

Source URL

Text

Log-odds weight

Reliability 0–1

Half-life (days)

Correlation group

Observed at

Available at

Enableddecay 0.000

Synthetic analyst note echoing the same printinflationconfirmeddisabled

Title

Source URL

Text

Log-odds weight

Reliability 0–1

Half-life (days)

Correlation group

Observed at

Available at

Enableddecay 0.000

Rumor: committee member hawkish remarksrumordisabled

Title

Source URL

Text

Log-odds weight

Reliability 0–1

Half-life (days)

Correlation group

Observed at

Available at

Enableddecay 0.000

Conditional assumptions (2)

contribution = sensitivity × (current − neutral), in log-odds. Sensitivities are your assumptions.

+0.000

4.25

Neutral

Min

Max

Sensitivity

+0.000

2.80

Neutral

Min

Max

Sensitivity

Economics · YES

All-in unit cost

0.4300

ask + fees + slippage

P(YES pays)

58.0%

EV / contract

+0.1500

Modeled EV

$150.00

N·(p − c)

P&L if wins

$570.00

N·(1 − c)

P&L if loses

−$430.00

−N·c, all contracts together

Baseline vs changed

	Baseline	Current	Δ
P(YES)	58.0%	58.0%	+0.0pp
EV / ct	+0.150	+0.150	+0.000
EV total	$150.00	$150.00	$0.00

Baseline = conditions at neutral, no manual override.

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